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French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

Elections Vol. $58,054 50 traders

Marine Le Pen100%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon100%
Raphaël Glucksmann70%
$58,054 Vol. Elections

Outcomes

21
Chance
Éric Zemmour
56% ▲ 1
Jordan Bardella
7%
Michel Barnier
12%
Valérie Pécresse
8% ▼ 1
Gabriel Attal Resolved
90% ▲ 9
Élisabeth Borne
12%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
5%
Jean Castex
12% ▼ 2
Gérald Darmanin
10% ▲ 3
Sébastien Lecornu
15%
François Bayrou
10%
Bernard Cazeneuve
51% ▼ 3
Carole Delga
11%
Olivier Faure
30% ▲ 4
François Hollande
47% ▼ 2
Raphaël Glucksmann
63% ▼ 1
Manuel Bompard
10%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon Resolved
90% ▲ 3
Mathilde Panot
5%
Dominique de Villepin
45%
Marine Le Pen Resolved
90% ▲ 2

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The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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